Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
